Here’s a summary of the latest news impacting the share market, with a focus on the Indian context:
Global Market Overview & Key Influencers:
- Geopolitical Tensions & Oil Prices: Global stock markets, including Wall Street, have recently seen rallies as hopes for a de-escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict grow. This has led to a significant tumble in oil prices, with benchmark U.S. crude falling back to pre-conflict levels. Lower oil prices are generally good news for oil-importing nations like India, as they ease inflationary pressures and can positively impact economic growth.
- Central Bank Policies (US Federal Reserve): There’s ongoing speculation and discussion regarding potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Recent statements from Fed officials hinting at possible rate cuts, provided inflation remains contained, have been received positively by markets. Lower interest rates tend to boost economies and make borrowing cheaper, which is favorable for stock markets.
- Trade Relations: Hopes for improved trade relations, particularly between the US and China, have also contributed to positive sentiment in global markets. However, uncertainties related to potential tariffs, such as the looming July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods by the US, remain a risk.
Indian Share Market Performance & Drivers:
- Positive Momentum: The Indian market has shown resilience and a positive bias, extending its winning streak. Both the Sensex and Nifty have seen gains, with the Nifty 50 jumping 8% year-to-date.
- FPI Inflows: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have made significant net investments into Indian stocks this week, amounting to over ₹13,000 crore, indicating continued global investor confidence in the Indian market.
- Rupee Appreciation: The Indian Rupee has shown strength, posting its best week since January 2023, closing below 85.5 against the dollar. This is partly due to the slide in oil prices.
- Sectoral Performance:
- Oil & Gas and Metals sectors have been recent outperformers.
- Financial Services, Information Technology, Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Goods, and Renewable Energy have been highlighted as top-performing sectors over the last decade, driven by technological advancements, increased demand, and policy support.
- The Cement sector is also seeing a positive outlook with expectations of demand rebound in FY26.
- Some Mid-cap pharma stocks are showing upside potential.
Key Company & Event News:
- BHEL: Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) shares are expected to be in focus on Monday after bagging a substantial ₹6,500 crore order from Adani Power for six thermal units. This adds to BHEL’s record order inflows in FY25.
- VRL Logistics: The company’s board will meet on July 4, 2025, to consider issuing bonus shares, which would be its first-ever bonus issue.
- Upcoming IPOs: Several companies, including HDB Financial Services and Sambhv Steel, are scheduled to debut on the exchanges next week. Pine Labs has also filed draft IPO papers with SEBI.
- Dividends and Splits: Numerous companies, including M&M, Container Corporation (bonus issue), and Paras Defence (stock split), have ex-date announcements for dividends, splits, or bonus issues next week.
- SEBI Action: SEBI recently conducted raids and seized “incriminating evidence” as part of its investigation into fraudulent “pump and dump” stock schemes, reinforcing regulatory oversight.
Potential Risks to Watch Out For:
- Tariff-related Uncertainty: Despite broader trade optimism, the potential imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the US on Indian goods in July 2025 remains a significant risk.
- US Inflation & Fed Rate Cuts: A sustained spike in US inflation could delay Fed rate cuts, leading to foreign capital outflows from emerging markets like India.
- Crude Oil Price Volatility: While oil prices have cooled, any renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions could push crude prices higher, negatively impacting India’s current account deficit, inflation, and corporate margins.
The market remains optimistic, supported by strong inflows and easing geopolitical concerns, but investors are advised to stay vigilant regarding global economic developments and potential tariff impacts.